Gartner warns of more destructive online attacks by 2015

Posted: December 2, 2010 in Cyter Security, WWW
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World’s leading IT research and advisory firm Gartner has forecast that by 2015, online sabotages will become multi-modal and very damaging and that even a G-20 nation’s critical infrastructure will be disrupted and damaged by such cyber attacks.

“By 2015, a G20 nation’s critical infrastructure will be disrupted and damaged by online sabotage. Online attacks can be multimodal, in the sense of targeting multiple systems for maximum impact, like financial system, (stock exchanges) physical plant (control systems of a chemical, nuclear or electric plant), or mobile communications (mobile message routers),” Managing Vice-President and Gartner fellow Darryl Plummer said in a report titled ‘Gartner’s Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2011 and Beyond: IT’s Growing Transparency’ released today.

“Such a multimodal attack can have lasting effects beyond a temporary disruption, in the same manner that the 9/11 had on the U.S.,” it adds.

The forecast also says, “by 2015, new revenue generated each year by IT will determine the annual compensation of most CIOs across the world.”

Explaining the reason for this, it says executive and board-level expectations for realizing revenue from those and other IT initiatives will become so common that by 2015 the amount of new revenue generated from IT initiatives will become the primary factor determining the incentive of new global 2000 CIOs’ annual package.

“With costs still under pressure, growth opportunities limited and the tolerance to bear risk low, IT faces increased levels of scrutiny from stakeholders both internal and external,” Plummer said.

This year’s top predictions highlight an increasingly visible linkage between technology decisions and outcomes, both economic and societal, vice president and Gartner fellow Brian Gammage said, adding by 2015, information-smart businesses will up their IT spending per head by 60 percent.

Those IT-enabled enterprises that successfully navigated the recent recession and return to growth will benefit from many internal and external dynamics.

The report again says by 2015, tools and automation will eliminate 25 percent of labour hours associated with IT services. As IT services industry matures, it’ll increasingly mirror other industries like manufacturing, in transforming from a craftsmanship to a more industrialized model.

“By 2015, 20 per cent of non-IT global 500 firms will be cloud service providers,” it says, adding cloud computing will hasten use of tools and automation in IT services as the new paradigm brings with it self-service, automated provisioning, metering etc, to deliver industrialized services.

On cloud computing, it says it will gain more traction with non-IT firms moving in to provide non-IT capabilities via cloud computing. “As non-IT players externalize core competencies via the cloud, they will be interjecting themselves into value chains and competing directly with traditional IT firms that have served this,” says the report.

By 2014, 90 per cent of firms will support corporate applications on personal devices. “The trend toward supporting corporate applications on employee-owned notebooks and smart phones is already under way in many companies and will become commonplace within four years,” says the report.

On the social media, it says by 2015, 10 per cent of one’s online friends will be non-humans. “By 2015, efforts to systematise and automate social engagement will result in the rise of social bots- automated software agents that can handle, to varying degrees, interaction with communities of users in a manner personalized to each individual,” the report concludes.

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